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June 15, 2019

Sudan and Algeria overthrow despots but not their political systems

Analysts counted 18 attempted coups around the world in 1966 and none at all in 2007 or 2018. According to CoupCast, a predictive model based on 68 economic and other variables, Africa is the only continent where the factors that foster coups are still fairly widespread (see map).
Victor Odundo Owuor
Dianna E. Almanza
June 05, 2019

Unpacking Social Media Use in Stabilization Efforts

The growing discomfort with how large social media platforms can be a tool for fueling real-world violence and empowering autocratic behavior often masks an equally important narrative: social media can be a source of good, especially in fragile states. This fact sheet - a continuation of the OEFR s...
May 30, 2019

SFF 2019: Partnerships to Support Somali fisheries

The Somalia Fisheries Forum (SFF 2019) brought together over 300 participants, including fishers, academics, business owners, and policymakers from the Federal Government of Somalia and the Somali regions to advance small-scale fisheries across the country.
May 23, 2019

Five Ways Terrorists Use the Maritime Domain

The fight against terrorism and criminal networks tends to focus on efforts on land, ignoring the role of the maritime domain. This results in a collective blind spot regarding complex problems like modern-day piracy, non-state terrorism, and transnational criminality.
May 22, 2019

Trust and Justice In Burundi

Hopes for peace in Burundi have been stymied as mediation talks have once again been postponed. If the government had implemented transitional justice mechanisms from an earlier peace and reconciliation agreement, would peace have had a better chance?
April 26, 2019

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

What are the likelihoods for coup events in 2019? The first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report explores by providing an in-depth global and regional look, using a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis in order to provide a different kind of tool-kit for forecasting future cou...
Jay Benson
Matthew Frank
Clayton Besaw
Jonathan Powell
Eric Keels
April 26, 2019

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

The goals of this first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report are two-fold. First, it provides an in-depth global and regional look at the likelihood of coup events for 2019 based on a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis of specific coup-prone states.