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Peace Negotiation

April 26, 2019

Annual Risk of Coup Report - 2019

What are the likelihoods for coup events in 2019? The first ever Annual Risk of Coup Report explores by providing an in-depth global and regional look, using a combination of quantitative forecasting and qualitative analysis in order to provide a different kind of tool-kit for forecasting future cou...

April 23, 2019

How to predict a coup

CoupCast finds that economic misery is linked to higher coup risk, as is extreme weather. But political factors matter more.

April 20, 2019

How to predict when a despot will fall

Perhaps the most rigorous quantitative forecast of political upheaval comes from One Earth Future (oef), an ngo based in Colorado that publishes a predictive model, CoupCast.

Jay Benson

Joshua Lambert

Eric Keels

March 15, 2019

Reassessing Rebellion

Though historically the number of armed conflicts has been declining, there has been a recent surge in ongoing civil wars. Intrastate armed conflicts therefore represent a persistent and dangerous threat to global stability.

February 25, 2019

How states rocked by conflict could harness funds from their diasporas

But new research we’ve conducted, which focuses on several African states – among them Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire and Ethiopia – suggests there may be an alternative funding source that nations could harness during times of crisis: diaspora investment

February 01, 2019

The odds of a military coup in Venezuela rise every day Maduro stays in office

Two weeks after Maduro’s re-inauguration, opposition leader Juan Gauido has declared himself the country's rightful president. The power struggle follows a failed military mutiny against Maduro, whose easy re-election in May 2018 during an economic, political, and humanitarian crisis has lead many t...

Michael Spagat

January 15, 2019

The Debate Continues: Peace by the Numbers

Aaron Clauset brings something new to the table by showing that the Correlates of War (COW) dataset on international war size and timing is compatible with a “no change” model according to which the risks of international wars of all possible sizes have remained stable over the last two centuries. M...

January 10, 2019

The Most Underrated Peace Activists

Non-state actors have contributed to the peace process in Colombia over the course of four decades of war.

December 24, 2018

2018 was the first year since 2007 without a coup. Here's what that means for 2019

There have been 463 coup attempts worldwide since 1950, 233 of which were successful. These undemocratic power transfers have sparked civil wars, triggered authoritarian crackdowns, and stunted economic growth.

December 15, 2018

City-Level Governance in Africa Is Key to Human Security

The African continent is expected to account for 80 percent of the projected 4 billion increase in the global population by 2100 and over 80 percent of the increase is expected to take place in cities. In contrast to Europe, Japan, and North America, who are experiencing population growth declines. ...

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